There’s been much discussion about what expanding the number of Best Picture nominations from five to ten has done to the integrity of the awards show.  Now the cynic in me knows well enough that expanding the field was in direct response to the unfathomable snub of “The Dark Knight” in the previous year; nonetheless, I actually like the 10 nominations.  Sure, there’s always going to be films that don’t get in, but without the expanded field, films such as “Up”, “District 9”, and the underseen “A Serious Man” would have never had a chance.  Here’s how I think the night will go down.  Don’t worry, I’ll only stick to the top-tier nominations.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR = Matt Damon in “Invictus”, Woody Harrelson in “The Messenger”, Christopher Plummer in “The Last Station”, Stanley Tucci in “The Lovely Bones”, Christoph Waltz in “Inglourious Basterds”
Probably the closest to a guarantee for the entire night; Christoph Waltz as the despicable Colonel Hans Linda was arguably…ah, who am I kidding, it WAS the most memorable performance of 2009.  It would be shocking, even downright criminal, for him not to win the award.
FAVORITE – Christoph Waltz
DARK HORSE – N/A
PERSONAL – Christoph Waltz

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS = Penelope Cruz in “Nine”, Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick in “Up in the Air”, Maggie Gyllenhaal in “Crazy Heart”, Mo’Nique in “Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire”
Though not as equally frontloaded as the Supporting Actor category, it would still be surprising to not see Mo’Nique win for her haunting and frightening performance as an abusive mother in “Precious”.  However, Maggie Gyllenhaal could be a spoiler even though she’s been overshadowed by Jeff Bridges’ performance in the same respective film.
FAVORITE  - Mo’Nique
DARK HORSE – Maggie Gyllenhaal
PERSONAL – Mo’Nique

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE = “Coraline”, “Fantastic Mr. Fox”, “The Princess and the Frog”, “The Secret of Kells”, “Up”
Pixar has pretty much dominated this category since its incarnation, which is why it’s a testament to the competition that Up, also nominated for Best Picture, is not guaranteed to win.  However, the split votes between “Coraline” and the wonderful “Fantastic Mr. Fox” will likely hand the Oscar to “Up”.  And I love traditional animation, but what the heck’s “The Secret of Kells”?
FAVORITE – Up
DARK HORSE – Fantastic Mr. Fox
PERSONAL – Fantastic Mr. Fox

BEST ACTRESS – Sandra Bullock in “The Blind Side”, Helen Mirren in “The Last Station”, Carey Mulligan in “An Education”, Gabourey Sidibe in “Precious”, Meryl Streep in “Julie & Julia”
It seems like this category will be a victim of a popularity contest as Sandra Bullock will likely win the award based entirely on media hype and her gigantic year at the box office.  The merits of her performance are debatable at best, especially in light of the effortless portrayal of Julia Child by Meryl Streep and the courageous and exposed turn by Gabourey Sidibe.
FAVORITE – Sandra Bullock
DARK HORSE – Meryl Streep
PERSONAL – Gabourey Sidibe

BEST ACTOR = Jeff Bridges in “Crazy Heart”, George Clooney in “Up in the Air”, Colin Firth in “A Single Man”, Morgan Freeman in “Invictus”, Jeremy Renner in “The Hurt Locker”
The cards seem to be in favor for the Dude Jeff Bridges, although the category this year has no real standout performance like in previous years.  Freeman is the runner-up by default since he played the man that he was born to play (Nelson Mandela) as well as everyone thought he would.
FAVORITE – Jeff Bridges
DARK HORSE – Morgan Freeman
PERSONAL – Jeff Bridges

BEST DIRECTOR = Kathryn Bigelow for “The Hurt Locker”, James Cameron for “Avatar”, Lee Daniels for “Precious”, Jason Reitman for “Up in the Air”, Quentin Tarantino for “Inglourious Basterds”
One of the closest director races in awhile.  Kathryn Bigelow, ex-wife of James Cameron, could become the first female director and could win for that fact alone (the Oscars love being relevant after all).  However, Cameron did direct not only the most successful film of all time, but created revolutionary technology that will likely be the standard for the next twenty years.  What could happen is that a split vote between Kathryn Bigelow and James Cameron could give Tarantino a chance to get his first and well-deserved Oscar.
FAVORITE = Kathryn Bigelow
DARK HORSE = Quentin Tarantino
PERSONAL = James Cameron

BEST PICTURE = Avatar, The Blind Side, District 9, An Education, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, A Serious Man, Up, Up in the Air
“The Hurt Locker” has essentially won every other major award out there; however, one can’t help but feel that its victory would undermine the whole reason of expanding to ten films: to give films that many people actually SAW an opportunity to win the award.  “Avatar” is changing the entertainment industry as we speak.  I think it’d be better to award a film on its longevity and impact more so than the quality of the film in this case.  Now personally, I’d love to see “District 9” pull off an upset as I think it had a better story than “Avatar” and is just so unique and awesome in its own right.
FAVORITE – The Hurt Locker
DARK HORSE – Avatar
PERSONAL – District 9